Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate - Iraq Getting Back To Normal After US Withdrawl Raises Hopes For Iraqi Dinar Increase
From Al Jazeera
It was late Thursday afternoon when my friend Amal called to talk about our weekend plans. For the past several months, we had grown accustomed to 'hanging out' at the bustling shopping centres in my neighbourhood, the Al-Saydiyah district in southwest Baghdad.
But just three years ago, violence and a lack of security in Baghdad and the rest of the country would have made such leisurely activities impossible.
People were unable to leave their homes except to buy food and seek emergency medical attention; the number of government-imposed curfews meant it was unsafe to even cross the street to a pharmacy.
Life was particularly difficult for women who were intimidated by militia groups into wearing long sleeves and head scarves. Men avoided wearing the latest fashions fearing attacks by over-zealous armed groups.
Between 2006 and 2007, Al-Saydiyah turned into a ghost-town as the once-famous shopping district in my neighbourhood shut down.
Despite the kidnappings, executions and bomb attacks it was the summer heat and lack of electricity which proved to be our deadliest enemies.
We were barely able to provide blocks of ice to keep drinking water cold through blazing summer days.
During the night, we escaped the heat by sleeping on the roof of the house but even that came to an abrupt halt when the sound of bullets and shooting would wake us up and we would frantically hurry downstairs carrying our mattress and pillows.
But as security improved in the past year-and-a-half, many residents of Baghdad began to emerge from the darkness, aware that they had survived the violence which nearly tore their capital apart.
My once-volatile neighbourhood is now flourishing slowly day by day with police forces deployed everywhere, inspiring a sense of security and relief.
Illuminating the darkness
The solar-powered street lights in central Baghdad flicker on shortly after sunset, illuminating the darkness that once brought fear to the capital.
These days, sundown is a time to celebrate. Cars jam Karrada Street in central Baghdad as fashionable young Iraqi men and women cruise the streets.
Families burst into clothing shops in the Mansour, Al-Adhamiyah, Baya'a, and Jama'a neighbourhoods, which were once the battlefields between different armed groups.
Tea houses and restaurants now host parties and wedding receptions. Liberal-minded youth seek out a handful of nightclubs and bars scattered around the city.
As security has improved and curfews have eased, Baghdad's once-famous nightlife has slowly re-emerged. It is now a symbol of normal times returning to a city long brutalised by war and still tormented by bombings.
The capital's residents have adopted carpe diem as their daily motto, in contrast to the violence of 2006-2007, when according to one resident "people locked their doors at 4pm and huddled at home".
Abu Nawas Park has been rebuilt and is undergoing renovation and refurbishment. With its flora and colourful benches, it offers Iraqis a pleasant venue to socialise despite the soaring temperatures of summer.
Fast food popularity
Fast food restaurants and snack canteens can now be found throughout Baghdad. One such restaurant is Crispy, which provides western dishes in Al-Wathiq Square. It is usually very crowded throughout the night and has been one of the favourite spots for my friends and I to frequent.
Nightclubs, which were closed in 1994 when Saddam Hussein, the deposed president, tried to woo Islamist support after the first Gulf War, have recently re-opened and are once again holding parties that last well into the pre-dawn hours.
The customers do not seem to care how much money they spend at these establishments, believing the chance to relax and unwind is well worth the cost.
One such place called Bayarat Al-Sham in the Al-Jadriyah district south of Baghdad has been particularly popular in recent months; it was nearly destroyed in the early years of the war but has now been completely remodelled.
Cautious optimism
Many Iraqis celebrated the US withdrawal from their cities. But Iraqis cannot help looking over their shoulders every once in a while. Going out at night carries a sense of optimism as well as apprehension, particularly following the recent upsurge in violence.
A bomb targeting civilians just a few weeks ago killed several people including students who had just finished their final exams and were returning home from Sadr City.
However, the violence has not stalled the constant procession of patrons to restaurants, nightclubs or liquor stores. In the past few decades, through war and strife, Iraqis developed a unique characteristic, learning how to live in heaven and hell simultaneously.
Young Iraqi men and women have also developed new ways to approach the opposite sex. When I was walking home the other day, I saw a young man giving what appeared to be his business card to a young girl.
But it wasn't a business card at all - young Iraqi men have started printing cards with their names and contact details which they then hand over to the young ladies who have caught their fancy.
Suddenly, a gust of air blew the card out of the young man's hand leaving him embarrassed as people stopped and stared. I considered this to be a healthy indication that life was slowly returning to normal in Baghdad.
Surviving the worst
For the most part, many Iraqis believe that Baghdad has survived the worst and are cautiously optimistic about the US withdrawal from the country's urban centres.
Noor Hasan, a 20-year-old medical student, believes that the US military withdrawal is "just a first step toward a better future".
Her father, an engineer in the ministry of industry, urges patience.
"We can't get everything at once. People are belittling this [withdrawal] step on the pretext that Americans are still there in the suburbs, but I believe that they are going to leave the country completely when the right moment comes."
But some believe US forces will always play a central role Iraq.
"They crossed hundreds of thousands of miles, and lost many of their soldiers to occupy Iraq. That withdrawal is only a show, something on paper, and will never materialise into something real," Nadia Abdulraheem, an employee in a health club, told me on June 30 as the US troops began to withdraw from Iraqi cities.
Shopping! I met Amal ten minutes after she called and spent the next three hours going from boutique to boutique trying on the latest imported fashions.
After an exhaustive shopping spree, we decided to take a short break and headed to one of the many cafeterias dotting the Al-Saydiyah district - she had a fruit cocktail and I opted for some ice cream.
By the time I decided to return home, the streets were quickly filling with shoppers and families looking for a cool escape from the summer heat.
Faiza Ali is the pseudonym of a young writer who requested that her real name not be used for fear of repercussions. She is a graduate from the department of linguistics at Baghdad University.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate - Iraq: The Energy Battle Heats Up
Iraq: The Energy Battle Heats Up
Stratfor Today » June 26, 2009 1124 GMT
ALI YUSSEF/
Summary:
Iraq's oil minister is being forced to defend himself against various charges stemming from the country's stagnant oil production. The charges come during a period of heightening tensions over oil among Iraq's feuding Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish factions. Ultimately, it will probably be up to an outside power to manage this political maelstrom - and of these powers, Turkey is the one to watch.
Analysis:
Iraq's OilIraqi Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani returned to the Iraqi parliament on June 25 to defend himself against a multitude of complaints from parliamentarians involving such issues as Iraq's declining oil output, its languishing hydrocarbons law and the corruption and mismanagement of the Iraqi oil industry's profits.
Due to a steep drop in once record-high crude prices over the past year, and aggravated by budget constraints and political infighting, Iraq's current oil output has stagnated at around 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd) - well below the country's enormous oil production potential. Since oil revenues account for 95 percent of the state's income, Shahristani has become the natural scapegoat for Iraq's current political and economic woes.
And with a major oil auction on the horizon, the country's first since the fall of Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi oil brawl is bound to escalate in the coming weeks. Given what he is up against, there is no guarantee that Shahristani will make it out of these June parliamentary grill sessions in one piece, but he has given no indication that he is prepared to bow out of this fight.Shahristani's plan to breathe some life back into Iraq's oil industry involves circumventing parliamentary approval to allow 32 of the world's major energy companies on June 29-30 to bid on 20-year-long service contracts to develop Iraq's six largest oil producing fields and two untapped natural gas fields. These energy companies, which include ExxonMobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch/Shell, ConocoPhillips, Turkish Petroleum Corp., BP, France's Total, Italy's Eni, Russia's Gazprom Neft and LUKoil, India's Oil and Natural Gas Corp. and China National Petroleum Corp., are taking a risk in investing in a country that has yet to pass an oil law, and whose politics pose a severe threat to business deals. Despite the risks, all these firms have a deep interest in securing these potentially lucrative contracts. But first, the oil minister must answer to the Federation of Oil Unions in the Shiite southern oil hub of Basra.
The southern labor unions produce the bulk of Iraqi crude and are extremely hesitant to allow foreign companies a piece of their contracts. The union federation has strongly criticized the oil minister for offering long-term service contracts, asserting that Iraqi companies and their employees are fully capable of developing the fields themselves. Shahrahstani's opponents in parliament argue that oil exploration - not production of existing fields - is needed to increase production. Shahristani, on the other hand, claims that exploration will take too much time, and there is a stronger need to focus on boosting current production. He argues that the foreign companies are the ones that the have the training, technological expertise and tools to more rapidly and efficiently boost Iraq's oil output by an additional 1.5 million bpd within four to five years.
This debate is not only about southern oil unions worried about being edged out by foreign oil majors. As Shahristani himself has claimed, there is a much wider political agenda involving multiple Iraqi factions currently in play.The Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), currently the largest Shiite party in parliament and the political bloc most closely aligned to Iran, carries a great deal of clout in the Shiite south that could strengthen the anti-Shahristani movement. After having fared poorly against Shiite Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his allies in January provincial polls, the ISCI is doing whatever it can to weaken the prime minister's power base so that it can be on a stronger political footing for legislative elections slated for Jan. 30, 2010.The ISCI's strategy involves using its clout in parliament to chip away at al-Maliki's Cabinet appointees.
Already, Iraqi Trade Minister Falah al-Sudani and former Parliament Speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani have been forced to resign. Shahristani, who maintains his political independence - and yet is in agreement with al-Maliki's vision of a strong, centralized government - is next on the target list.In addition to natural political competition, the ISCI and al-Maliki are on two different wavelengths in trying to shape the future of Iraq. The ISCI, and the Iranians by extension, envision a federalist model of Iraq that essentially carves out a Shiite autonomous zone in the south (similar to the Kurdish autonomous zone in the north). This would augment Iran's influence in Iraq via their Iraqi Shiite allies.
This vision, however, is directly at odds with that of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, smaller regional Shiite parties and the mainstream Sunni parties, who all agree on the need for a strong, centralized government in Iraq that can build up its immunity to foreign penetration. Al-Maliki and Shahristani have been able to draw support from Sunni and Shiite factions for their strong stance against federalism and their iron-fist approach with the Kurds, but they are also up against a number of sore losers from the provincial elections who want to see the prime minister weakened.The ISCI has no shortage of allies to use against al-Maliki. The oil unions in the south do not always get along politically with the ISCI, but they do share a common interest in fighting Shahristani's oil investment program. The ISCI also has a parliamentary alliance with the Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party, which recently succeeded in getting its own man in the parliamentary speaker position to use as a platform to challenge al-Maliki directly.
Finally, the ISCI has found an ally among the Kurds, who have the most to lose in this oil battle against al-Maliki and Shahristani.Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is locked into conflict with Baghdad over how to manage the country's massive oil wealth. Blessed by its energy resources and cursed by its geography, the Kurdish region is up against not only Iraq's Shiite and Sunni Arab communities, but also by its far more powerful neighbors - Turkey, Iran and Syria, who all share a common interest in extinguishing any notion of Kurdish independence or even expanded autonomy.
The Kurds' best defense against their rivals is to gain as much control as possible over energy resources in the north and to use their region's energy appeal to lure in foreign investors. The more foreigners buy into the Kurdish region, the more protection the Kurds receive against outside penetration. Consequently, from the moment Saddam Hussein fell from power and the Kurds organized politically, the KRG has been extremely active in inviting foreign firms to explore and develop Iraq's northern fields.To sweeten the pot, the Kurds have offered these firms extremely attractive Production-Sharing Agreements (PSAs) that offer firms ownership stakes in the fields. This policy directly opposes Shahristani's push only to allow foreign firms to charge fees, as opposed to offering them ownership rights that would undermine Baghdad's central authority, for raising output.
The Kurds know they have a narrow window of opportunity to secure these energy rights, and will thus fight tooth and nail in parliament to shoot down Shahristani and al-Maliki's policies that aim to assert central authority in Iraq and undermine Kurdish autonomy.But the Kurds can only go so far in their dealings with foreign energy firms, dealings Baghdad terms "illegal" and "unconstitutional." Energy companies have been exploring and developing fields in the north, but any plan to export for real profit must have both Turkey's (as the export link) and Baghdad's approval.
The Kurds, however, are feeling more emboldened after the central government - under heavy pressure to raise Iraq's oil output - reluctantly allowed oil to flow from KRG fields in the north to the Turkish port at Ceyhan for export beginning June 1. The budget pressure on Baghdad allowed the KRG to take another step forward in furthering Kurdish autonomy, but the Kurds also know this export opportunity can just as easily be snatched away by their rivals. For now, the Kurds are trying to exploit the wider criticism against Shahristani, a move that will allow them to continue with business as usual on the energy front while Baghdad remains at odds with itself.From intra-Shiite rivalries to panicky oil unions to Kurdish-Arab political battles, there are a number of reasons for the world's oil supermajors to be nervous about the June 29-30 auction. These political fissures run deep, and will continue to hold the country back from checking off critical items on the parliamentary agenda, such as signing a viable oil law.
With the central government on the defensive, it will most likely be up to an outside power to manage this political maelstrom.Of these powers, the United States is too distracted to enter into Iraqi internal politics to resolve these conflicts, and Iranian influence is largely limited to their Shiite allies. Turkey, however, is the country to watch in Iraq's energy evolution. The Turks are already on an ascendant path in the region, and have been busily shoring up ties with key members of each of Iraq's warring factions, including the Kurds. If Turkey intends to fulfill its long-term objective to control a substantial portion of Iraq's energy industry, it is only a matter of time before Ankara dives deeper into Iraqi politics.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Iraqi Dinar Value-So Cute The Fledgling Democracy Has Embezzlement. Long Way To Go Before You Come Close To Illinois...
Hey...It Wasn't Me...It was the Other Guy That Looks Just Like Me With The Exact Same Name...Iraqi Outgoing Provincial Chief Suspected Of Embezzling $130 Million
Monday April 6th, 2009 / 15h44
BAQOUBA, Iraq (AFP)--An arrest warrant has been issued for an outgoing Iraqi provincial council chief for allegedly misappropriating nearly $130 million in public funds, police said Monday.
"The judicial authorities have issued an arrest warrant against Ibrahim Hassan Bajilan, who is suspected of embezzlement," said an official in Baqouba, capital of the province of Diyala northeast of Baghdad. However Bajilan, a member of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, or PUK, party, denied the allegation.
"It is completely false," he told AFP by telephone. "It was me who contacted the authorities, and judicial sources in Diyala province assured me it was someone with the same name who is being sought. It certainly isn't me!" Mahdi Saleh, a provincial councilor with the Islamic Party, told AFP that when the accounts for 2008 were being done "we discovered expenditure on fictitious projects and unjustified cash deposits in his accounts.
"Anti-corruption officials have asked Bajilan to reimburse 150 billion dinars ($128 million) to the state. He has refused. So the council referred the case to the judicial authorities," Saleh said. Iraq staged provincial elections Jan. 31 in 14 of the country's 18 provinces, including Diyala.
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