The Iraqi dinar is the official currency of Iraq. The nation stays largely isolated from global financial markets. The nation has no real sovereign credit, there is small need for its money which stays thinly traded. All Iraqi property, including its money are viewed as currently being a very great financial risk. The Iraqi dinar value, or the Iraqi dinar exchange rate, is effectively determined through the central bank through it's US currency auctions. The Iraq dinar was initially launched in 1932 when Iraq grew to become independent from British rule. The dinar changed the Indian rupee that had been launched by the British following winning control of Iraq from Turkey in WWI. The Iraqi dinar continues to be a managed or controlled currency throughout its existence.
Initially, when it was first placed into circulation, the Iraqi dinar was pegged towards the British pound. By 1959 Iraqi nationwide wealth had proved to be more and more coupled with oil. Oil was priced and traded globally in terms from the US currency, so the Iraqi currency peg was altered within the path of the US dollar and stays so today. After the initial US Gulf Struggle and the imposition of UN financial sanctions, financial conditions inside Iraq worsened sharply. By 1993, inflation had rocketed to an amazing yearly rate of more than 1000 percent, unemployment was at a massive fifty percent and also the Iraqi dinar exchange rate dropped considerably. Throughout 1994, it required about 2,500 dinars to buy one US dollar. To help the dinar, numerous measures had been launched in 1996 such as new regulations allowing Iraqi citizens to own overseas money financial institution accounts.
Following the 2nd Gulf War, new preparations had been created to take effect on 15 October 2003 to issue a new Iraqi dinar and to manage the Iraqi dinar exchange rate. Since those new arrangements have been launched, the Iraqi dinar value has steadily increased. The current exchange rate is 1,170 dinars for 1 US dollar. Figures published through the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in its World Fact Book display the number of Iraqi dinars needed to purchase 1 US dollar was at 1,475 dinars in 2005, 1,466 in 2006, 1,255 in 2007, 1,176 in 2008 and 1,170 in 2009. All indicators point to the presently prevailing exchange rate gradually increasing in the not too distant future.
Iraq just lately quantified its confirmed raw oil reserves at 143 billion barrels, in comparison with Saudi Arabia with 265 billion barrels of confirmed reserves. The nice part about these reserves are that they are effortlessly accessible and as a result the oil is cheap to produce. Roughly 95% of all Iraqi export value is derived from crude oil.
In the long run, as political balance returns to Iraq, its financial programs gains efficiencies and its citizens capture the full value of the national crude oil wealth, the Iraqi dinar value might be anticipated to strengthen considerably over its current trading valuations.
There are other sources and articles on the subject of Iraqi dinar value listed below.
Showing posts with label iraqi dinar exchange rate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label iraqi dinar exchange rate. Show all posts
Sunday, December 26, 2010
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Iraqi Dinar Value - The Dollar While Weak Is Still King, Even In Iraq
Interesting article on the supposed fall of the dollar and the possible replacement by other currencies as the world currency of choice. The Iraqi Dinar could be worth even more than expected.
Globally, the Greenback Remains King
The Wall Street Journal
October 29, 2009
The U.S. dollar, once universally accepted as the world's strongest currency, has been trounced in recent months by everything from the euro to the Brazilian real to the South Korean won. But in the back-alley markets where business is done in many of the world's developing economies, the dollar still reigns.
In jewelry stores in Vietnam, taxicabs in Venezuela and outdoor markets in Nigeria, black-market money-changers say the dollar is still the currency of choice, even though its value has fallen in some cases.
"The U.S. dollar is losing value, but not here in Vietnam," said Vu Manh Quynh, an auto trader who regularly exchanges dong for dollars in the winding streets of Hanoi's Old Quarter. "Vietnamese people still keep U.S. dollars and gold." While the U.S. dollar fetches 17,858 dong on the official rates, the black market rate is closer to 18,600. Hai Duong, a currency trader, said he had 20 or more customers buying U.S. dollars on a recent Wednesday, compared with two customers buying euros.
While their true size is unknown, black markets in currencies are key to greasing the wheels of commerce in countries that have tight currency controls. They provide residents and companies with protection against inflation or a possible devaluation of the local currency, and give companies a source of dollars with which to buy and sell goods abroad. In most countries, the markets are illegal, while in others they are tacitly condoned.
"Typically, dollars are king in the black markets of the world," says Kenneth Rogoff, professor of economics at Harvard University and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.
Prof. Rogoff estimates that as much as 75% of U.S. notes in circulation, or more than $600 billion, are held outside the U.S. Most of that is likely in what he calls the underground economy, where transactions are made beyond the oversight of government -- much of which is juiced by the black market.
"This money is not in cash registers, it's not in bank vaults," Prof. Rogoff says.
In the world's official foreign-exchange markets, where turnover totals about $3 trillion each day, according to the Bank for International Settlements, the dollar's luster has diminished. The dollar, for example, has fallen about 6% against the euro this year. The dollar has dropped about 15% against a basket of currencies since early March.
The ballooning U.S. deficit and a move by investors away from the haven of the dollar as world economies recover have sparked worries that the currency may be headed for a years-long swoon. It also has opened the door for renewed questioning of the dollar's future as the world's reserve currency.
For Venezuelans, where the black market plays a crucial role in the financial system, the dollar has retained its status. Residents seeking protection against inflation or a devaluation of the bolivar turn to currency traders. Large companies that need dollars for operations abroad also visit the unregulated market.
View Full Image
Justin Mott for The Wall Street Journal
."Having dollars is like a barricade," says Arnaldo Morales, a cabby who moonlights as a currency trader, buying dollars from travelers as they enter the country, then selling them to Venezuelans.
Mr. Morales says he has been trading dollars since 2003, when President Hugo Chávez imposed a currency peg. Residents can purchase only $2,500 for travel abroad each year at the official rate of 2.15 bolivars.
The economy has become so heavily dependent on the so-called parallel exchange rate for greenbacks that the government was recently forced to intervene after the dollar traded as high as seven bolivars in August. The government is flooding the domestic market with dollars by selling bonds to locals who then trade them abroad for U.S. currency.
"The dollar will always be strong," says Andrea Martinez, a trader who dismissed as temporary the recent decline in the black-market rate. Ms. Martinez operates inside a tiny, nondescript mall where shotgun-carrying private-security guards wearing bulletproof vests watch over rows of pawn shops that serve as a front for dollar traders. On a good day, she says, she still sells as much as $5,000.
In Nigeria, sub-Sahara Africa's second-largest economy, currency traders still deal predominantly in American currency. The black-market traders even have their own trade group, the Association of Bureaux de Change Operators of Nigeria.
"The dollar still has dominance in Nigeria," said Alhaji Farouk Suleman, the president of the group. "The exchange rate might not be good, but you know what you're dealing with and that you can use the dollar anywhere you go. I don't see any real shift towards the pound or euro."
The Nigerian naira, after plummeting late last year and earlier this year, has stabilized against the dollar, thanks to renewed confidence after harsh banking reforms undertaken by a new central bank governor. The dollar was fetching 183 naira in the spring, but now buys about 153 naira.
But the dollar's descent against the world's biggest currencies hasn't gone unnoticed.
On the streets of Mumbai, illegal currency traders that swap wads of cash from bags behind their shops in the bustling back alleys of Colaba, a neighborhood popular with tourists, say business has been slow recently. The dollar's decline has sellers waiting for a rebound and buyers waiting for a better deal.
"Business is way down," says one trader, spitting a stream of red betel-nut juice in the alley behind his shop and wiping his moustache. "People still want to wait." The dollar buys 47 rupees at licensed currency-trading companies and 46.70 rupees on the black market.
And at the Super Rich currency exchange near one of Bangkok's busiest downtown thoroughfares, Thaweesak Kanchanakorn says he and his girlfriend are planning to vacation in the U.S., and that he thought it might be a good idea to invest in dollars now, because they're "cheap." In the long run, "I don't think the U.S. dollar will still be a major currency for reserves anymore," he said. China's yuan "will take its place."
For now, those seeking to exchange bolivars or dong are choosing the U.S. dollar, if only because it remains the most recognizable of the world's currencies.
In Iraq, where legal currency exchanges have become common, the U.S. presence since 2003 has kept up demand for the dollar at the expense of the euro.
Ali Mohammed of the Al Nasir currency-exchange company said that although the world market value of the euro has risen, it is difficult to exchange in Baghdad. And the dollar likely will be Iraq's unofficial second currency for some time to come. The dollar fetched about 1,190 dinars in September, according to central bank figures, little changed from 1,220 dinars at the beginning of 2008.
"It's the only thing used, besides the Iraqi dinar, for commercial business and trade," he said. "As long as it stays pretty stable, we don't mind this."
Carlos Denis, who trades in the Venezuelan mall alongside Ms. Martinez, insists that the dollar is still the only currency that matters. "Take out a dollar bill in the remotest place in world and people will recognize it," he said.
-- Eric Bellman in India, Gina Chon in Iraq and Wilawan Watcharasakwet
in Thailand contributed
to this article.
Globally, the Greenback Remains King
The Wall Street Journal
October 29, 2009
The U.S. dollar, once universally accepted as the world's strongest currency, has been trounced in recent months by everything from the euro to the Brazilian real to the South Korean won. But in the back-alley markets where business is done in many of the world's developing economies, the dollar still reigns.
In jewelry stores in Vietnam, taxicabs in Venezuela and outdoor markets in Nigeria, black-market money-changers say the dollar is still the currency of choice, even though its value has fallen in some cases.
"The U.S. dollar is losing value, but not here in Vietnam," said Vu Manh Quynh, an auto trader who regularly exchanges dong for dollars in the winding streets of Hanoi's Old Quarter. "Vietnamese people still keep U.S. dollars and gold." While the U.S. dollar fetches 17,858 dong on the official rates, the black market rate is closer to 18,600. Hai Duong, a currency trader, said he had 20 or more customers buying U.S. dollars on a recent Wednesday, compared with two customers buying euros.
While their true size is unknown, black markets in currencies are key to greasing the wheels of commerce in countries that have tight currency controls. They provide residents and companies with protection against inflation or a possible devaluation of the local currency, and give companies a source of dollars with which to buy and sell goods abroad. In most countries, the markets are illegal, while in others they are tacitly condoned.
"Typically, dollars are king in the black markets of the world," says Kenneth Rogoff, professor of economics at Harvard University and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.
Prof. Rogoff estimates that as much as 75% of U.S. notes in circulation, or more than $600 billion, are held outside the U.S. Most of that is likely in what he calls the underground economy, where transactions are made beyond the oversight of government -- much of which is juiced by the black market.
"This money is not in cash registers, it's not in bank vaults," Prof. Rogoff says.
In the world's official foreign-exchange markets, where turnover totals about $3 trillion each day, according to the Bank for International Settlements, the dollar's luster has diminished. The dollar, for example, has fallen about 6% against the euro this year. The dollar has dropped about 15% against a basket of currencies since early March.
The ballooning U.S. deficit and a move by investors away from the haven of the dollar as world economies recover have sparked worries that the currency may be headed for a years-long swoon. It also has opened the door for renewed questioning of the dollar's future as the world's reserve currency.
For Venezuelans, where the black market plays a crucial role in the financial system, the dollar has retained its status. Residents seeking protection against inflation or a devaluation of the bolivar turn to currency traders. Large companies that need dollars for operations abroad also visit the unregulated market.
View Full Image
Justin Mott for The Wall Street Journal
."Having dollars is like a barricade," says Arnaldo Morales, a cabby who moonlights as a currency trader, buying dollars from travelers as they enter the country, then selling them to Venezuelans.
Mr. Morales says he has been trading dollars since 2003, when President Hugo Chávez imposed a currency peg. Residents can purchase only $2,500 for travel abroad each year at the official rate of 2.15 bolivars.
The economy has become so heavily dependent on the so-called parallel exchange rate for greenbacks that the government was recently forced to intervene after the dollar traded as high as seven bolivars in August. The government is flooding the domestic market with dollars by selling bonds to locals who then trade them abroad for U.S. currency.
"The dollar will always be strong," says Andrea Martinez, a trader who dismissed as temporary the recent decline in the black-market rate. Ms. Martinez operates inside a tiny, nondescript mall where shotgun-carrying private-security guards wearing bulletproof vests watch over rows of pawn shops that serve as a front for dollar traders. On a good day, she says, she still sells as much as $5,000.
In Nigeria, sub-Sahara Africa's second-largest economy, currency traders still deal predominantly in American currency. The black-market traders even have their own trade group, the Association of Bureaux de Change Operators of Nigeria.
"The dollar still has dominance in Nigeria," said Alhaji Farouk Suleman, the president of the group. "The exchange rate might not be good, but you know what you're dealing with and that you can use the dollar anywhere you go. I don't see any real shift towards the pound or euro."
The Nigerian naira, after plummeting late last year and earlier this year, has stabilized against the dollar, thanks to renewed confidence after harsh banking reforms undertaken by a new central bank governor. The dollar was fetching 183 naira in the spring, but now buys about 153 naira.
But the dollar's descent against the world's biggest currencies hasn't gone unnoticed.
On the streets of Mumbai, illegal currency traders that swap wads of cash from bags behind their shops in the bustling back alleys of Colaba, a neighborhood popular with tourists, say business has been slow recently. The dollar's decline has sellers waiting for a rebound and buyers waiting for a better deal.
"Business is way down," says one trader, spitting a stream of red betel-nut juice in the alley behind his shop and wiping his moustache. "People still want to wait." The dollar buys 47 rupees at licensed currency-trading companies and 46.70 rupees on the black market.
And at the Super Rich currency exchange near one of Bangkok's busiest downtown thoroughfares, Thaweesak Kanchanakorn says he and his girlfriend are planning to vacation in the U.S., and that he thought it might be a good idea to invest in dollars now, because they're "cheap." In the long run, "I don't think the U.S. dollar will still be a major currency for reserves anymore," he said. China's yuan "will take its place."
For now, those seeking to exchange bolivars or dong are choosing the U.S. dollar, if only because it remains the most recognizable of the world's currencies.
In Iraq, where legal currency exchanges have become common, the U.S. presence since 2003 has kept up demand for the dollar at the expense of the euro.
Ali Mohammed of the Al Nasir currency-exchange company said that although the world market value of the euro has risen, it is difficult to exchange in Baghdad. And the dollar likely will be Iraq's unofficial second currency for some time to come. The dollar fetched about 1,190 dinars in September, according to central bank figures, little changed from 1,220 dinars at the beginning of 2008.
"It's the only thing used, besides the Iraqi dinar, for commercial business and trade," he said. "As long as it stays pretty stable, we don't mind this."
Carlos Denis, who trades in the Venezuelan mall alongside Ms. Martinez, insists that the dollar is still the only currency that matters. "Take out a dollar bill in the remotest place in world and people will recognize it," he said.
-- Eric Bellman in India, Gina Chon in Iraq and Wilawan Watcharasakwet
in Thailand contributed
to this article.
Monday, September 21, 2009
Iraqi Dinar Value - Biden Pushes Iraqi Leaders On Vote Law, Oil-Bid Perks
Biden Pushes Iraqi Leaders On Vote Law, Oil-Bid Perks
By Scott Wilson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, September 17, 2009
BAGHDAD, Sept. 16 -- Vice President Biden pressed Iraqi leaders Wednesday to approve as quickly as possible legislation that establishes rules for the planned January general election and to make the next round of bids to develop Iraqi oil concessions more attractive to foreign investors.
In a series of meetings in the Green Zone, Biden listened to the concerns of Iraqi leaders, now in the heat of an election season that Obama administration officials acknowledge will delay until after the vote any progress on such pressing issues as passing a law on the equitable distribution of national oil revenue among Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds.
A senior administration official said Biden also made his interests known on a variety of issues, such as the need for the Iraqi parliament to adopt laws to better protect foreign investment and leaving unchanged the terms of the timetable for the withdrawal of the 130,000 U.S. troops now in the country.
This is Biden's second visit to Iraq in two months, and it comes as the Obama administration is trying to manage a growing Iraqi impatience with the U.S. military presence here. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, whom Biden met with Wednesday evening, has expressed support for a proposed referendum that would hasten by a year the 2011 withdrawal deadline for all U.S. forces in Iraq.
U.S. military and diplomatic officials fear that a rapid departure could undermine the security gains realized over the past year, and in his meetings Biden asked Iraqi officials whether they thought the referendum would proceed. But Biden is reluctant to be seen as meddling in a domestic Iraqi issue, and a senior administration official said the vice president operated largely in "listening mode."
Speaking next to Biden at his official residence, Maliki said U.S. forces had complied with the terms of the agreement outlining the schedule for the troop withdrawal and the training of Iraqi forces with "high credibility."
Biden reiterated the terms of the withdrawal timeline. The senior administration official said the two men's statements mean "that we have a mutual interest in moving forward" under the conditions set out in the agreement.
Biden also appealed to Iraqi leaders to offer more financial incentives for foreign investors to bid on Iraqi oil concessions; only one bid of the eight put out this year was accepted. The administration official estimated that one additional deal would translate into $50 billion to $60 billion in foreign investment in Iraq, generate $600 million in annual revenue and create tens of thousands of jobs in the country.
The official said Biden would deliver the same message to Kurdish leaders in meetings scheduled for Thursday. Kurds' interest in ensuring what they see as a fair share of proceeds from the rich oil fields of Iraq's north has presented an obstacle to a revenue-sharing agreement. Reaching a deal is crucial to Iraq's oil-dependent economy, but the goal has been politically elusive for years.
"In an election season in any country, it's difficult to make definitive progress on any issue, and these are difficult issues," the official said, adding that Biden's hope is for the next Iraqi government to be "in good position" to move on the oil legislation and other matters soon after the election.
In all his meetings, Biden asked Iraqi officials to assess their progress on an election law, concerned that without one in place soon the January vote will not be able to proceed. The official said he particularly pressed Ayad al-Samarraie, speaker of the Iraqi parliament, because the law is a legislative matter.
Biden and Maliki expressed hope that the Iraq Business and Investment Conference scheduled to be held in Washington next month would encourage private U.S. investment in Iraq. But the administration source said Biden told Iraqi leaders that regulatory and other financial protections need to be enacted to make foreign investors more comfortable doing business here.
Some of the proposed protections are before parliament, the official said, and their passage would allow, among other things, for the Overseas Private Investment Corp. to extend loan guarantees to companies wishing to do business in Iraq.
By Scott Wilson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, September 17, 2009
BAGHDAD, Sept. 16 -- Vice President Biden pressed Iraqi leaders Wednesday to approve as quickly as possible legislation that establishes rules for the planned January general election and to make the next round of bids to develop Iraqi oil concessions more attractive to foreign investors.
In a series of meetings in the Green Zone, Biden listened to the concerns of Iraqi leaders, now in the heat of an election season that Obama administration officials acknowledge will delay until after the vote any progress on such pressing issues as passing a law on the equitable distribution of national oil revenue among Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds.
A senior administration official said Biden also made his interests known on a variety of issues, such as the need for the Iraqi parliament to adopt laws to better protect foreign investment and leaving unchanged the terms of the timetable for the withdrawal of the 130,000 U.S. troops now in the country.
This is Biden's second visit to Iraq in two months, and it comes as the Obama administration is trying to manage a growing Iraqi impatience with the U.S. military presence here. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, whom Biden met with Wednesday evening, has expressed support for a proposed referendum that would hasten by a year the 2011 withdrawal deadline for all U.S. forces in Iraq.
U.S. military and diplomatic officials fear that a rapid departure could undermine the security gains realized over the past year, and in his meetings Biden asked Iraqi officials whether they thought the referendum would proceed. But Biden is reluctant to be seen as meddling in a domestic Iraqi issue, and a senior administration official said the vice president operated largely in "listening mode."
Speaking next to Biden at his official residence, Maliki said U.S. forces had complied with the terms of the agreement outlining the schedule for the troop withdrawal and the training of Iraqi forces with "high credibility."
Biden reiterated the terms of the withdrawal timeline. The senior administration official said the two men's statements mean "that we have a mutual interest in moving forward" under the conditions set out in the agreement.
Biden also appealed to Iraqi leaders to offer more financial incentives for foreign investors to bid on Iraqi oil concessions; only one bid of the eight put out this year was accepted. The administration official estimated that one additional deal would translate into $50 billion to $60 billion in foreign investment in Iraq, generate $600 million in annual revenue and create tens of thousands of jobs in the country.
The official said Biden would deliver the same message to Kurdish leaders in meetings scheduled for Thursday. Kurds' interest in ensuring what they see as a fair share of proceeds from the rich oil fields of Iraq's north has presented an obstacle to a revenue-sharing agreement. Reaching a deal is crucial to Iraq's oil-dependent economy, but the goal has been politically elusive for years.
"In an election season in any country, it's difficult to make definitive progress on any issue, and these are difficult issues," the official said, adding that Biden's hope is for the next Iraqi government to be "in good position" to move on the oil legislation and other matters soon after the election.
In all his meetings, Biden asked Iraqi officials to assess their progress on an election law, concerned that without one in place soon the January vote will not be able to proceed. The official said he particularly pressed Ayad al-Samarraie, speaker of the Iraqi parliament, because the law is a legislative matter.
Biden and Maliki expressed hope that the Iraq Business and Investment Conference scheduled to be held in Washington next month would encourage private U.S. investment in Iraq. But the administration source said Biden told Iraqi leaders that regulatory and other financial protections need to be enacted to make foreign investors more comfortable doing business here.
Some of the proposed protections are before parliament, the official said, and their passage would allow, among other things, for the Overseas Private Investment Corp. to extend loan guarantees to companies wishing to do business in Iraq.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Iraqi Dinar Value - Shattered in Baghdad blasts: Iraqi faith in security forces
Shattered in Baghdad blasts: Iraqi faith in security forces
From street sweepers to Foreign Ministry guards, Iraqis say their countrymen are falling short of their duty to protect them.
By Jane Arraf Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
Baghdad - At the site of the deadliest Baghdad bombing in 18 months, Iraqi faith that their security forces could protect them lay shattered in the wreckage.
Outside the Foreign Ministry in central Baghdad, residents and security people gathered around tangled heaps of the frames of burned cars, some of them still smoldering into the evening.
"Iraqi security forces aren't strong enough – you see the police talking on their cellphones and listening to music," said Harath, a Foreign Ministry guard sitting under the dangling wires of a broken light fixture.
The ministry had been evacuated just after a truck packed with an estimated ton of explosives detonated, killing 59 people and wounding 150, but eight hours later Fatima Abdullah Sharif was still searching for her daughter Zainab, a ministry employee.
"Have you heard anything about her?" she asked each passerby in an anguished voice. "I've been looking for her since this morning."
Zainab, one of Fatima's three children, had returned temporarily to Baghdad two months ago from her job at the Iraqi consulate in Mexico. "I worked so hard to raise them," sobbed Fatima, explaining that her husband died 12 years ago.
Many of the dead and wounded were ministry officials. Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zubari, who was not in Baghdad when the bombs hit, flew back from the Kurdish capital of Arbil and went to hospitals to visit the wounded after landing.
'I would prefer the US troops stay'
The ministry, surrounded by high concrete walls on a busy street, was near a checkpoint that had been dismantled earlier this year. As attacks in Baghdad have decreased, Iraqi authorities eager to show improvement in security and make the city livable again have started removing concrete walls and security checkpoints.
"We all know our security isn't perfect. We saw a big truck in the security camera," said Hawree Talabani, an employee in the IT department at the ministry. Blood seeped through a bandage wrapped around his head. "How can you drive a truck with a ton of explosives up here?"
Across the street, near the blackened branches of trees that caught fire in the explosions, policeman Hameed Eid explained why as he examined the tangled metal that was the remains of his car.
"They removed the checkpoint and we have no scanning devices for explosives," he said. "I would prefer to keep the concrete walls. I would prefer that the American troops stay but the Iraqis and the Iraqi political parties can't agree among themselves about it."
Hallmarks of Al Qaeda in Iraq
Thousands of US combat troops who had patrolled Baghdad with their Iraqi counterparts pulled back to the main US base outside the city in line with a June 30 deadline under the US-Iraqi joint security agreement. The move, a prelude to the complete withdrawal of US forces by the end of 2011, has raised concerns that Al Qaeda in Iraq and other insurgent groups are creeping back into the city.
The US military says it was asked for and provided aerial surveillance after the attacks for intelligence gathering, medical evacuation, and forensic help to try to piece together who was responsible.
The coordinated attack, on the anniversary of the bombing of the UN headquarters in Baghdad in 2003, with its size and sophistication, had the hallmarks of Al Qaeda in Iraq.
"These attacks represent a reaction to the opening of streets and bridges and the lifting of barriers inside the residential areas," Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said in a statement. He blamed Al Qaeda in Iraq and former Baathists, as did many of the Iraqis in the streets.
"Only the Baathists would do this – they like destruction," said Saad Kamal Rahim al-Saadi, a street sweeper in an orange vest who was making a futile attempt to clear shattered glass.
"Not everything that happens is because of the Baathists," disagreed Abu Isa, a driver. "The Baathists themselves are afraid right now. If I was a security person I would protect the people – they're not doing their jobs."
'No one from the government has come here'
Another Iraqi in the gathering crowd, a shopkeeper, said he believed the United States and Israel were behind the bombings, because they wanted an excuse for American troops to stay.
Sardar Khorsheed, one of the Kurdish security people at the nearby parliament building, sat on the edge of the giant crater where the truck bomb had exploded.
"When the Americans were here there were no big explosions," he said, but added that that didn't mean he wanted the American troops to return.
Some of the anger of Iraqis was directed at the Iraqi government.
"No one from the government has come down here," said Henna al-Tamimmi, who lives in one of the blocks of apartments across the street. She said her windows were blown out, the doors hanging off her hinges, and the furniture in pieces. "It looks like the explosion happened in our house – where are we going to sleep tonight? All Iraqi officials do is go on television and say they have everything under control."
From street sweepers to Foreign Ministry guards, Iraqis say their countrymen are falling short of their duty to protect them.
By Jane Arraf Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
Baghdad - At the site of the deadliest Baghdad bombing in 18 months, Iraqi faith that their security forces could protect them lay shattered in the wreckage.
Outside the Foreign Ministry in central Baghdad, residents and security people gathered around tangled heaps of the frames of burned cars, some of them still smoldering into the evening.
"Iraqi security forces aren't strong enough – you see the police talking on their cellphones and listening to music," said Harath, a Foreign Ministry guard sitting under the dangling wires of a broken light fixture.
The ministry had been evacuated just after a truck packed with an estimated ton of explosives detonated, killing 59 people and wounding 150, but eight hours later Fatima Abdullah Sharif was still searching for her daughter Zainab, a ministry employee.
"Have you heard anything about her?" she asked each passerby in an anguished voice. "I've been looking for her since this morning."
Zainab, one of Fatima's three children, had returned temporarily to Baghdad two months ago from her job at the Iraqi consulate in Mexico. "I worked so hard to raise them," sobbed Fatima, explaining that her husband died 12 years ago.
Many of the dead and wounded were ministry officials. Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zubari, who was not in Baghdad when the bombs hit, flew back from the Kurdish capital of Arbil and went to hospitals to visit the wounded after landing.
'I would prefer the US troops stay'
The ministry, surrounded by high concrete walls on a busy street, was near a checkpoint that had been dismantled earlier this year. As attacks in Baghdad have decreased, Iraqi authorities eager to show improvement in security and make the city livable again have started removing concrete walls and security checkpoints.
"We all know our security isn't perfect. We saw a big truck in the security camera," said Hawree Talabani, an employee in the IT department at the ministry. Blood seeped through a bandage wrapped around his head. "How can you drive a truck with a ton of explosives up here?"
Across the street, near the blackened branches of trees that caught fire in the explosions, policeman Hameed Eid explained why as he examined the tangled metal that was the remains of his car.
"They removed the checkpoint and we have no scanning devices for explosives," he said. "I would prefer to keep the concrete walls. I would prefer that the American troops stay but the Iraqis and the Iraqi political parties can't agree among themselves about it."
Hallmarks of Al Qaeda in Iraq
Thousands of US combat troops who had patrolled Baghdad with their Iraqi counterparts pulled back to the main US base outside the city in line with a June 30 deadline under the US-Iraqi joint security agreement. The move, a prelude to the complete withdrawal of US forces by the end of 2011, has raised concerns that Al Qaeda in Iraq and other insurgent groups are creeping back into the city.
The US military says it was asked for and provided aerial surveillance after the attacks for intelligence gathering, medical evacuation, and forensic help to try to piece together who was responsible.
The coordinated attack, on the anniversary of the bombing of the UN headquarters in Baghdad in 2003, with its size and sophistication, had the hallmarks of Al Qaeda in Iraq.
"These attacks represent a reaction to the opening of streets and bridges and the lifting of barriers inside the residential areas," Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said in a statement. He blamed Al Qaeda in Iraq and former Baathists, as did many of the Iraqis in the streets.
"Only the Baathists would do this – they like destruction," said Saad Kamal Rahim al-Saadi, a street sweeper in an orange vest who was making a futile attempt to clear shattered glass.
"Not everything that happens is because of the Baathists," disagreed Abu Isa, a driver. "The Baathists themselves are afraid right now. If I was a security person I would protect the people – they're not doing their jobs."
'No one from the government has come here'
Another Iraqi in the gathering crowd, a shopkeeper, said he believed the United States and Israel were behind the bombings, because they wanted an excuse for American troops to stay.
Sardar Khorsheed, one of the Kurdish security people at the nearby parliament building, sat on the edge of the giant crater where the truck bomb had exploded.
"When the Americans were here there were no big explosions," he said, but added that that didn't mean he wanted the American troops to return.
Some of the anger of Iraqis was directed at the Iraqi government.
"No one from the government has come down here," said Henna al-Tamimmi, who lives in one of the blocks of apartments across the street. She said her windows were blown out, the doors hanging off her hinges, and the furniture in pieces. "It looks like the explosion happened in our house – where are we going to sleep tonight? All Iraqi officials do is go on television and say they have everything under control."
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate - Iraq Getting Back To Normal After US Withdrawl Raises Hopes For Iraqi Dinar Increase
Baghdad getting back to normal after US withdrawal...
From Al Jazeera
It was late Thursday afternoon when my friend Amal called to talk about our weekend plans. For the past several months, we had grown accustomed to 'hanging out' at the bustling shopping centres in my neighbourhood, the Al-Saydiyah district in southwest Baghdad.
But just three years ago, violence and a lack of security in Baghdad and the rest of the country would have made such leisurely activities impossible.
People were unable to leave their homes except to buy food and seek emergency medical attention; the number of government-imposed curfews meant it was unsafe to even cross the street to a pharmacy.
Life was particularly difficult for women who were intimidated by militia groups into wearing long sleeves and head scarves. Men avoided wearing the latest fashions fearing attacks by over-zealous armed groups.
Between 2006 and 2007, Al-Saydiyah turned into a ghost-town as the once-famous shopping district in my neighbourhood shut down.
Despite the kidnappings, executions and bomb attacks it was the summer heat and lack of electricity which proved to be our deadliest enemies.
We were barely able to provide blocks of ice to keep drinking water cold through blazing summer days.
During the night, we escaped the heat by sleeping on the roof of the house but even that came to an abrupt halt when the sound of bullets and shooting would wake us up and we would frantically hurry downstairs carrying our mattress and pillows.
But as security improved in the past year-and-a-half, many residents of Baghdad began to emerge from the darkness, aware that they had survived the violence which nearly tore their capital apart.
My once-volatile neighbourhood is now flourishing slowly day by day with police forces deployed everywhere, inspiring a sense of security and relief.
Illuminating the darkness
The solar-powered street lights in central Baghdad flicker on shortly after sunset, illuminating the darkness that once brought fear to the capital.
These days, sundown is a time to celebrate. Cars jam Karrada Street in central Baghdad as fashionable young Iraqi men and women cruise the streets.
Families burst into clothing shops in the Mansour, Al-Adhamiyah, Baya'a, and Jama'a neighbourhoods, which were once the battlefields between different armed groups.
Tea houses and restaurants now host parties and wedding receptions. Liberal-minded youth seek out a handful of nightclubs and bars scattered around the city.
As security has improved and curfews have eased, Baghdad's once-famous nightlife has slowly re-emerged. It is now a symbol of normal times returning to a city long brutalised by war and still tormented by bombings.
The capital's residents have adopted carpe diem as their daily motto, in contrast to the violence of 2006-2007, when according to one resident "people locked their doors at 4pm and huddled at home".
Abu Nawas Park has been rebuilt and is undergoing renovation and refurbishment. With its flora and colourful benches, it offers Iraqis a pleasant venue to socialise despite the soaring temperatures of summer.
Fast food popularity
Fast food restaurants and snack canteens can now be found throughout Baghdad. One such restaurant is Crispy, which provides western dishes in Al-Wathiq Square. It is usually very crowded throughout the night and has been one of the favourite spots for my friends and I to frequent.
Nightclubs, which were closed in 1994 when Saddam Hussein, the deposed president, tried to woo Islamist support after the first Gulf War, have recently re-opened and are once again holding parties that last well into the pre-dawn hours.
The customers do not seem to care how much money they spend at these establishments, believing the chance to relax and unwind is well worth the cost.
One such place called Bayarat Al-Sham in the Al-Jadriyah district south of Baghdad has been particularly popular in recent months; it was nearly destroyed in the early years of the war but has now been completely remodelled.
Cautious optimism
Many Iraqis celebrated the US withdrawal from their cities. But Iraqis cannot help looking over their shoulders every once in a while. Going out at night carries a sense of optimism as well as apprehension, particularly following the recent upsurge in violence.
A bomb targeting civilians just a few weeks ago killed several people including students who had just finished their final exams and were returning home from Sadr City.
However, the violence has not stalled the constant procession of patrons to restaurants, nightclubs or liquor stores. In the past few decades, through war and strife, Iraqis developed a unique characteristic, learning how to live in heaven and hell simultaneously.
Young Iraqi men and women have also developed new ways to approach the opposite sex. When I was walking home the other day, I saw a young man giving what appeared to be his business card to a young girl.
But it wasn't a business card at all - young Iraqi men have started printing cards with their names and contact details which they then hand over to the young ladies who have caught their fancy.
Suddenly, a gust of air blew the card out of the young man's hand leaving him embarrassed as people stopped and stared. I considered this to be a healthy indication that life was slowly returning to normal in Baghdad.
Surviving the worst
For the most part, many Iraqis believe that Baghdad has survived the worst and are cautiously optimistic about the US withdrawal from the country's urban centres.
Noor Hasan, a 20-year-old medical student, believes that the US military withdrawal is "just a first step toward a better future".
Her father, an engineer in the ministry of industry, urges patience.
"We can't get everything at once. People are belittling this [withdrawal] step on the pretext that Americans are still there in the suburbs, but I believe that they are going to leave the country completely when the right moment comes."
But some believe US forces will always play a central role Iraq.
"They crossed hundreds of thousands of miles, and lost many of their soldiers to occupy Iraq. That withdrawal is only a show, something on paper, and will never materialise into something real," Nadia Abdulraheem, an employee in a health club, told me on June 30 as the US troops began to withdraw from Iraqi cities.
Shopping! I met Amal ten minutes after she called and spent the next three hours going from boutique to boutique trying on the latest imported fashions.
After an exhaustive shopping spree, we decided to take a short break and headed to one of the many cafeterias dotting the Al-Saydiyah district - she had a fruit cocktail and I opted for some ice cream.
By the time I decided to return home, the streets were quickly filling with shoppers and families looking for a cool escape from the summer heat.
Faiza Ali is the pseudonym of a young writer who requested that her real name not be used for fear of repercussions. She is a graduate from the department of linguistics at Baghdad University.
From Al Jazeera
It was late Thursday afternoon when my friend Amal called to talk about our weekend plans. For the past several months, we had grown accustomed to 'hanging out' at the bustling shopping centres in my neighbourhood, the Al-Saydiyah district in southwest Baghdad.
But just three years ago, violence and a lack of security in Baghdad and the rest of the country would have made such leisurely activities impossible.
People were unable to leave their homes except to buy food and seek emergency medical attention; the number of government-imposed curfews meant it was unsafe to even cross the street to a pharmacy.
Life was particularly difficult for women who were intimidated by militia groups into wearing long sleeves and head scarves. Men avoided wearing the latest fashions fearing attacks by over-zealous armed groups.
Between 2006 and 2007, Al-Saydiyah turned into a ghost-town as the once-famous shopping district in my neighbourhood shut down.
Despite the kidnappings, executions and bomb attacks it was the summer heat and lack of electricity which proved to be our deadliest enemies.
We were barely able to provide blocks of ice to keep drinking water cold through blazing summer days.
During the night, we escaped the heat by sleeping on the roof of the house but even that came to an abrupt halt when the sound of bullets and shooting would wake us up and we would frantically hurry downstairs carrying our mattress and pillows.
But as security improved in the past year-and-a-half, many residents of Baghdad began to emerge from the darkness, aware that they had survived the violence which nearly tore their capital apart.
My once-volatile neighbourhood is now flourishing slowly day by day with police forces deployed everywhere, inspiring a sense of security and relief.
Illuminating the darkness
The solar-powered street lights in central Baghdad flicker on shortly after sunset, illuminating the darkness that once brought fear to the capital.
These days, sundown is a time to celebrate. Cars jam Karrada Street in central Baghdad as fashionable young Iraqi men and women cruise the streets.
Families burst into clothing shops in the Mansour, Al-Adhamiyah, Baya'a, and Jama'a neighbourhoods, which were once the battlefields between different armed groups.
Tea houses and restaurants now host parties and wedding receptions. Liberal-minded youth seek out a handful of nightclubs and bars scattered around the city.
As security has improved and curfews have eased, Baghdad's once-famous nightlife has slowly re-emerged. It is now a symbol of normal times returning to a city long brutalised by war and still tormented by bombings.
The capital's residents have adopted carpe diem as their daily motto, in contrast to the violence of 2006-2007, when according to one resident "people locked their doors at 4pm and huddled at home".
Abu Nawas Park has been rebuilt and is undergoing renovation and refurbishment. With its flora and colourful benches, it offers Iraqis a pleasant venue to socialise despite the soaring temperatures of summer.
Fast food popularity
Fast food restaurants and snack canteens can now be found throughout Baghdad. One such restaurant is Crispy, which provides western dishes in Al-Wathiq Square. It is usually very crowded throughout the night and has been one of the favourite spots for my friends and I to frequent.
Nightclubs, which were closed in 1994 when Saddam Hussein, the deposed president, tried to woo Islamist support after the first Gulf War, have recently re-opened and are once again holding parties that last well into the pre-dawn hours.
The customers do not seem to care how much money they spend at these establishments, believing the chance to relax and unwind is well worth the cost.
One such place called Bayarat Al-Sham in the Al-Jadriyah district south of Baghdad has been particularly popular in recent months; it was nearly destroyed in the early years of the war but has now been completely remodelled.
Cautious optimism
Many Iraqis celebrated the US withdrawal from their cities. But Iraqis cannot help looking over their shoulders every once in a while. Going out at night carries a sense of optimism as well as apprehension, particularly following the recent upsurge in violence.
A bomb targeting civilians just a few weeks ago killed several people including students who had just finished their final exams and were returning home from Sadr City.
However, the violence has not stalled the constant procession of patrons to restaurants, nightclubs or liquor stores. In the past few decades, through war and strife, Iraqis developed a unique characteristic, learning how to live in heaven and hell simultaneously.
Young Iraqi men and women have also developed new ways to approach the opposite sex. When I was walking home the other day, I saw a young man giving what appeared to be his business card to a young girl.
But it wasn't a business card at all - young Iraqi men have started printing cards with their names and contact details which they then hand over to the young ladies who have caught their fancy.
Suddenly, a gust of air blew the card out of the young man's hand leaving him embarrassed as people stopped and stared. I considered this to be a healthy indication that life was slowly returning to normal in Baghdad.
Surviving the worst
For the most part, many Iraqis believe that Baghdad has survived the worst and are cautiously optimistic about the US withdrawal from the country's urban centres.
Noor Hasan, a 20-year-old medical student, believes that the US military withdrawal is "just a first step toward a better future".
Her father, an engineer in the ministry of industry, urges patience.
"We can't get everything at once. People are belittling this [withdrawal] step on the pretext that Americans are still there in the suburbs, but I believe that they are going to leave the country completely when the right moment comes."
But some believe US forces will always play a central role Iraq.
"They crossed hundreds of thousands of miles, and lost many of their soldiers to occupy Iraq. That withdrawal is only a show, something on paper, and will never materialise into something real," Nadia Abdulraheem, an employee in a health club, told me on June 30 as the US troops began to withdraw from Iraqi cities.
Shopping! I met Amal ten minutes after she called and spent the next three hours going from boutique to boutique trying on the latest imported fashions.
After an exhaustive shopping spree, we decided to take a short break and headed to one of the many cafeterias dotting the Al-Saydiyah district - she had a fruit cocktail and I opted for some ice cream.
By the time I decided to return home, the streets were quickly filling with shoppers and families looking for a cool escape from the summer heat.
Faiza Ali is the pseudonym of a young writer who requested that her real name not be used for fear of repercussions. She is a graduate from the department of linguistics at Baghdad University.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate - Iraq: The Energy Battle Heats Up
Now that US forces are leaving Iraq, Its Time for some of that Iraqi Tea, that bubbling crude to start paying off?
Iraq: The Energy Battle Heats Up
Stratfor Today » June 26, 2009 1124 GMT
ALI YUSSEF/
Summary:
Iraq's oil minister is being forced to defend himself against various charges stemming from the country's stagnant oil production. The charges come during a period of heightening tensions over oil among Iraq's feuding Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish factions. Ultimately, it will probably be up to an outside power to manage this political maelstrom - and of these powers, Turkey is the one to watch.
Analysis:
Iraq's OilIraqi Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani returned to the Iraqi parliament on June 25 to defend himself against a multitude of complaints from parliamentarians involving such issues as Iraq's declining oil output, its languishing hydrocarbons law and the corruption and mismanagement of the Iraqi oil industry's profits.
Due to a steep drop in once record-high crude prices over the past year, and aggravated by budget constraints and political infighting, Iraq's current oil output has stagnated at around 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd) - well below the country's enormous oil production potential. Since oil revenues account for 95 percent of the state's income, Shahristani has become the natural scapegoat for Iraq's current political and economic woes.
And with a major oil auction on the horizon, the country's first since the fall of Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi oil brawl is bound to escalate in the coming weeks. Given what he is up against, there is no guarantee that Shahristani will make it out of these June parliamentary grill sessions in one piece, but he has given no indication that he is prepared to bow out of this fight.Shahristani's plan to breathe some life back into Iraq's oil industry involves circumventing parliamentary approval to allow 32 of the world's major energy companies on June 29-30 to bid on 20-year-long service contracts to develop Iraq's six largest oil producing fields and two untapped natural gas fields. These energy companies, which include ExxonMobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch/Shell, ConocoPhillips, Turkish Petroleum Corp., BP, France's Total, Italy's Eni, Russia's Gazprom Neft and LUKoil, India's Oil and Natural Gas Corp. and China National Petroleum Corp., are taking a risk in investing in a country that has yet to pass an oil law, and whose politics pose a severe threat to business deals. Despite the risks, all these firms have a deep interest in securing these potentially lucrative contracts. But first, the oil minister must answer to the Federation of Oil Unions in the Shiite southern oil hub of Basra.
The southern labor unions produce the bulk of Iraqi crude and are extremely hesitant to allow foreign companies a piece of their contracts. The union federation has strongly criticized the oil minister for offering long-term service contracts, asserting that Iraqi companies and their employees are fully capable of developing the fields themselves. Shahrahstani's opponents in parliament argue that oil exploration - not production of existing fields - is needed to increase production. Shahristani, on the other hand, claims that exploration will take too much time, and there is a stronger need to focus on boosting current production. He argues that the foreign companies are the ones that the have the training, technological expertise and tools to more rapidly and efficiently boost Iraq's oil output by an additional 1.5 million bpd within four to five years.
This debate is not only about southern oil unions worried about being edged out by foreign oil majors. As Shahristani himself has claimed, there is a much wider political agenda involving multiple Iraqi factions currently in play.The Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), currently the largest Shiite party in parliament and the political bloc most closely aligned to Iran, carries a great deal of clout in the Shiite south that could strengthen the anti-Shahristani movement. After having fared poorly against Shiite Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his allies in January provincial polls, the ISCI is doing whatever it can to weaken the prime minister's power base so that it can be on a stronger political footing for legislative elections slated for Jan. 30, 2010.The ISCI's strategy involves using its clout in parliament to chip away at al-Maliki's Cabinet appointees.
Already, Iraqi Trade Minister Falah al-Sudani and former Parliament Speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani have been forced to resign. Shahristani, who maintains his political independence - and yet is in agreement with al-Maliki's vision of a strong, centralized government - is next on the target list.In addition to natural political competition, the ISCI and al-Maliki are on two different wavelengths in trying to shape the future of Iraq. The ISCI, and the Iranians by extension, envision a federalist model of Iraq that essentially carves out a Shiite autonomous zone in the south (similar to the Kurdish autonomous zone in the north). This would augment Iran's influence in Iraq via their Iraqi Shiite allies.
This vision, however, is directly at odds with that of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, smaller regional Shiite parties and the mainstream Sunni parties, who all agree on the need for a strong, centralized government in Iraq that can build up its immunity to foreign penetration. Al-Maliki and Shahristani have been able to draw support from Sunni and Shiite factions for their strong stance against federalism and their iron-fist approach with the Kurds, but they are also up against a number of sore losers from the provincial elections who want to see the prime minister weakened.The ISCI has no shortage of allies to use against al-Maliki. The oil unions in the south do not always get along politically with the ISCI, but they do share a common interest in fighting Shahristani's oil investment program. The ISCI also has a parliamentary alliance with the Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party, which recently succeeded in getting its own man in the parliamentary speaker position to use as a platform to challenge al-Maliki directly.
Finally, the ISCI has found an ally among the Kurds, who have the most to lose in this oil battle against al-Maliki and Shahristani.Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is locked into conflict with Baghdad over how to manage the country's massive oil wealth. Blessed by its energy resources and cursed by its geography, the Kurdish region is up against not only Iraq's Shiite and Sunni Arab communities, but also by its far more powerful neighbors - Turkey, Iran and Syria, who all share a common interest in extinguishing any notion of Kurdish independence or even expanded autonomy.
The Kurds' best defense against their rivals is to gain as much control as possible over energy resources in the north and to use their region's energy appeal to lure in foreign investors. The more foreigners buy into the Kurdish region, the more protection the Kurds receive against outside penetration. Consequently, from the moment Saddam Hussein fell from power and the Kurds organized politically, the KRG has been extremely active in inviting foreign firms to explore and develop Iraq's northern fields.To sweeten the pot, the Kurds have offered these firms extremely attractive Production-Sharing Agreements (PSAs) that offer firms ownership stakes in the fields. This policy directly opposes Shahristani's push only to allow foreign firms to charge fees, as opposed to offering them ownership rights that would undermine Baghdad's central authority, for raising output.
The Kurds know they have a narrow window of opportunity to secure these energy rights, and will thus fight tooth and nail in parliament to shoot down Shahristani and al-Maliki's policies that aim to assert central authority in Iraq and undermine Kurdish autonomy.But the Kurds can only go so far in their dealings with foreign energy firms, dealings Baghdad terms "illegal" and "unconstitutional." Energy companies have been exploring and developing fields in the north, but any plan to export for real profit must have both Turkey's (as the export link) and Baghdad's approval.
The Kurds, however, are feeling more emboldened after the central government - under heavy pressure to raise Iraq's oil output - reluctantly allowed oil to flow from KRG fields in the north to the Turkish port at Ceyhan for export beginning June 1. The budget pressure on Baghdad allowed the KRG to take another step forward in furthering Kurdish autonomy, but the Kurds also know this export opportunity can just as easily be snatched away by their rivals. For now, the Kurds are trying to exploit the wider criticism against Shahristani, a move that will allow them to continue with business as usual on the energy front while Baghdad remains at odds with itself.From intra-Shiite rivalries to panicky oil unions to Kurdish-Arab political battles, there are a number of reasons for the world's oil supermajors to be nervous about the June 29-30 auction. These political fissures run deep, and will continue to hold the country back from checking off critical items on the parliamentary agenda, such as signing a viable oil law.
With the central government on the defensive, it will most likely be up to an outside power to manage this political maelstrom.Of these powers, the United States is too distracted to enter into Iraqi internal politics to resolve these conflicts, and Iranian influence is largely limited to their Shiite allies. Turkey, however, is the country to watch in Iraq's energy evolution. The Turks are already on an ascendant path in the region, and have been busily shoring up ties with key members of each of Iraq's warring factions, including the Kurds. If Turkey intends to fulfill its long-term objective to control a substantial portion of Iraq's energy industry, it is only a matter of time before Ankara dives deeper into Iraqi politics.
Iraq: The Energy Battle Heats Up
Stratfor Today » June 26, 2009 1124 GMT
ALI YUSSEF/
Summary:
Iraq's oil minister is being forced to defend himself against various charges stemming from the country's stagnant oil production. The charges come during a period of heightening tensions over oil among Iraq's feuding Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish factions. Ultimately, it will probably be up to an outside power to manage this political maelstrom - and of these powers, Turkey is the one to watch.
Analysis:
Iraq's OilIraqi Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani returned to the Iraqi parliament on June 25 to defend himself against a multitude of complaints from parliamentarians involving such issues as Iraq's declining oil output, its languishing hydrocarbons law and the corruption and mismanagement of the Iraqi oil industry's profits.
Due to a steep drop in once record-high crude prices over the past year, and aggravated by budget constraints and political infighting, Iraq's current oil output has stagnated at around 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd) - well below the country's enormous oil production potential. Since oil revenues account for 95 percent of the state's income, Shahristani has become the natural scapegoat for Iraq's current political and economic woes.
And with a major oil auction on the horizon, the country's first since the fall of Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi oil brawl is bound to escalate in the coming weeks. Given what he is up against, there is no guarantee that Shahristani will make it out of these June parliamentary grill sessions in one piece, but he has given no indication that he is prepared to bow out of this fight.Shahristani's plan to breathe some life back into Iraq's oil industry involves circumventing parliamentary approval to allow 32 of the world's major energy companies on June 29-30 to bid on 20-year-long service contracts to develop Iraq's six largest oil producing fields and two untapped natural gas fields. These energy companies, which include ExxonMobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch/Shell, ConocoPhillips, Turkish Petroleum Corp., BP, France's Total, Italy's Eni, Russia's Gazprom Neft and LUKoil, India's Oil and Natural Gas Corp. and China National Petroleum Corp., are taking a risk in investing in a country that has yet to pass an oil law, and whose politics pose a severe threat to business deals. Despite the risks, all these firms have a deep interest in securing these potentially lucrative contracts. But first, the oil minister must answer to the Federation of Oil Unions in the Shiite southern oil hub of Basra.
The southern labor unions produce the bulk of Iraqi crude and are extremely hesitant to allow foreign companies a piece of their contracts. The union federation has strongly criticized the oil minister for offering long-term service contracts, asserting that Iraqi companies and their employees are fully capable of developing the fields themselves. Shahrahstani's opponents in parliament argue that oil exploration - not production of existing fields - is needed to increase production. Shahristani, on the other hand, claims that exploration will take too much time, and there is a stronger need to focus on boosting current production. He argues that the foreign companies are the ones that the have the training, technological expertise and tools to more rapidly and efficiently boost Iraq's oil output by an additional 1.5 million bpd within four to five years.
This debate is not only about southern oil unions worried about being edged out by foreign oil majors. As Shahristani himself has claimed, there is a much wider political agenda involving multiple Iraqi factions currently in play.The Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), currently the largest Shiite party in parliament and the political bloc most closely aligned to Iran, carries a great deal of clout in the Shiite south that could strengthen the anti-Shahristani movement. After having fared poorly against Shiite Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his allies in January provincial polls, the ISCI is doing whatever it can to weaken the prime minister's power base so that it can be on a stronger political footing for legislative elections slated for Jan. 30, 2010.The ISCI's strategy involves using its clout in parliament to chip away at al-Maliki's Cabinet appointees.
Already, Iraqi Trade Minister Falah al-Sudani and former Parliament Speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani have been forced to resign. Shahristani, who maintains his political independence - and yet is in agreement with al-Maliki's vision of a strong, centralized government - is next on the target list.In addition to natural political competition, the ISCI and al-Maliki are on two different wavelengths in trying to shape the future of Iraq. The ISCI, and the Iranians by extension, envision a federalist model of Iraq that essentially carves out a Shiite autonomous zone in the south (similar to the Kurdish autonomous zone in the north). This would augment Iran's influence in Iraq via their Iraqi Shiite allies.
This vision, however, is directly at odds with that of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, smaller regional Shiite parties and the mainstream Sunni parties, who all agree on the need for a strong, centralized government in Iraq that can build up its immunity to foreign penetration. Al-Maliki and Shahristani have been able to draw support from Sunni and Shiite factions for their strong stance against federalism and their iron-fist approach with the Kurds, but they are also up against a number of sore losers from the provincial elections who want to see the prime minister weakened.The ISCI has no shortage of allies to use against al-Maliki. The oil unions in the south do not always get along politically with the ISCI, but they do share a common interest in fighting Shahristani's oil investment program. The ISCI also has a parliamentary alliance with the Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party, which recently succeeded in getting its own man in the parliamentary speaker position to use as a platform to challenge al-Maliki directly.
Finally, the ISCI has found an ally among the Kurds, who have the most to lose in this oil battle against al-Maliki and Shahristani.Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is locked into conflict with Baghdad over how to manage the country's massive oil wealth. Blessed by its energy resources and cursed by its geography, the Kurdish region is up against not only Iraq's Shiite and Sunni Arab communities, but also by its far more powerful neighbors - Turkey, Iran and Syria, who all share a common interest in extinguishing any notion of Kurdish independence or even expanded autonomy.
The Kurds' best defense against their rivals is to gain as much control as possible over energy resources in the north and to use their region's energy appeal to lure in foreign investors. The more foreigners buy into the Kurdish region, the more protection the Kurds receive against outside penetration. Consequently, from the moment Saddam Hussein fell from power and the Kurds organized politically, the KRG has been extremely active in inviting foreign firms to explore and develop Iraq's northern fields.To sweeten the pot, the Kurds have offered these firms extremely attractive Production-Sharing Agreements (PSAs) that offer firms ownership stakes in the fields. This policy directly opposes Shahristani's push only to allow foreign firms to charge fees, as opposed to offering them ownership rights that would undermine Baghdad's central authority, for raising output.
The Kurds know they have a narrow window of opportunity to secure these energy rights, and will thus fight tooth and nail in parliament to shoot down Shahristani and al-Maliki's policies that aim to assert central authority in Iraq and undermine Kurdish autonomy.But the Kurds can only go so far in their dealings with foreign energy firms, dealings Baghdad terms "illegal" and "unconstitutional." Energy companies have been exploring and developing fields in the north, but any plan to export for real profit must have both Turkey's (as the export link) and Baghdad's approval.
The Kurds, however, are feeling more emboldened after the central government - under heavy pressure to raise Iraq's oil output - reluctantly allowed oil to flow from KRG fields in the north to the Turkish port at Ceyhan for export beginning June 1. The budget pressure on Baghdad allowed the KRG to take another step forward in furthering Kurdish autonomy, but the Kurds also know this export opportunity can just as easily be snatched away by their rivals. For now, the Kurds are trying to exploit the wider criticism against Shahristani, a move that will allow them to continue with business as usual on the energy front while Baghdad remains at odds with itself.From intra-Shiite rivalries to panicky oil unions to Kurdish-Arab political battles, there are a number of reasons for the world's oil supermajors to be nervous about the June 29-30 auction. These political fissures run deep, and will continue to hold the country back from checking off critical items on the parliamentary agenda, such as signing a viable oil law.
With the central government on the defensive, it will most likely be up to an outside power to manage this political maelstrom.Of these powers, the United States is too distracted to enter into Iraqi internal politics to resolve these conflicts, and Iranian influence is largely limited to their Shiite allies. Turkey, however, is the country to watch in Iraq's energy evolution. The Turks are already on an ascendant path in the region, and have been busily shoring up ties with key members of each of Iraq's warring factions, including the Kurds. If Turkey intends to fulfill its long-term objective to control a substantial portion of Iraq's energy industry, it is only a matter of time before Ankara dives deeper into Iraqi politics.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate Will Rise 300 Times!!!
Big Thanks to http://dealorbuydinar.com/
Iraq is Growing Faster Than China And Has A Wealth Of Natural Resources
Iraqi Growth Rate Surpasses That of China
In anticipation of a stronger Iraqi currency, investment fever is rising in Japan
By Nagato Ito
17 March 2009 (Nikkei Business)In response to U.S. President Barack Obama's announcement of his Iraq withdrawal plan, anticipation of economic restoration in the country is rising among businesses as well as private citizens in Japan. The U.S. plan calls for 12,000 U.S. troops to withdraw from Iraq by the end of this September, and for the evacuation to be complete by 2011.Expectations mount for infrastructure investment from JapanOn March 1, representatives of 12 Japanese companies, including Mitsubishi Corp. and Japan Petroleum Exploration Co., Ltd., visited Baghdad with Japanese government officials.
There were concrete inquiries about oil concessions and other issues, using legal terms at times.Iraq expects Japan to invest in its infrastructure. Since 2003, Japan has granted $1.5 billion in aid to Iraq, making contributions by repairing hospitals and power-generation facilities. Marubeni Corp. has received orders from hospitals in 12 locations. "Our know-how of security measures is probably the best," said Executive Director Shoichi Ikuta, a member of the inspection team.Although deaths by terrorist attacks have decreased, about 500 people still are being killed in Iraq each month. Marubeni, which finds it difficult to send its employees in Japan to Iraq, has decided to train Iraqi staffers outside the country.
Its method of training is to videotape what goes on locally and confirm the procedures from outside the country. Ikuta pointed out, "If we were to continue business transactions with Iraq, it would be necessary to ensure safety and lighten loan-collection risks."The International Monetary Fund estimates Iraq's growth rate for gross domestic product (GDP) is on the recovery track at 9.8% in 2008 and 7.7% in 2009. Though the scale of Iraq's GDP is about 1/47th that of China, its growth rate last year is estimated to have been higher than that of China, which was 9.0%.Expecting high rates of growth, various nations are expediting their expansion of trade with Iraq. U.S.-based General Electric has sold power generators, while Royal Dutch Shell decided to participate in gas field development.
China already is engaged in oil field development, while South Korea plans to build power generation facilities.Japanese Foreign Ministry Ambassador Gotaro Ogawa, who is in charge of coordinating reconstruction assistance for Iraq, said, "The United States has declared it will be responsible for withdrawing troops from Iraq. Public peace and order is likely to be restored." Japanese firms look forward to expanding business opportunities while maintaining a balance with safety.
Some expect Iraqi currency to rise 300 timesIn the midst of all these movements, an Iraq boom is starting among private citizens in Japan. A 42-year-old housewife living in Fuji City, Shizuoka Prefecture, invested 1 million yen in Iraqi dinar last October. Since it can't be exchanged in banks in Japan, she made the purchase from a money changer in Tokyo. "When the Iraqi economy recovers, its value will surely rise sharply," she said.The money changer has been getting a considerable number of these orders lately. Its monthly trade was 500,000 yen last July, and swelled 60 times to 30 million yen by January of this year. The Iraqi currency had declined sharply due to the Gulf War and its aftermath. Some people have opined that if the official exchange rate returns to what it was before the war, the Iraqi currency may rise 300 times from its present rate.
Another money changer in Tokyo says he is getting similar orders, but remains calm about the currency rise. "On the basis of a practical rate, the rise will be no more than several times the present rate," he said. He said he only buys and sells after explaining the risks to customers, but in comparison with last September, the monthly trading volume has increased by about 20 times.
At first, President Obama had set the withdrawal deadline at April 2010, but was later forced to delay the deadline. There are some uncertain factors with regard to peace and order in Iraq in the future. Likewise, there is nothing certain about the value of its currency. Nevertheless, business firms and investors are attracted by Iraq, which boasts a high growth rate while the rest of the world is in recession. The economy of Iraq, not the military or political phases of the nation, is becoming the center of world attention.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Iraqi Dinar-Brits Tuck Tail And Run...Is Iraq Really Safer...Or Are They Cutting And Running?
So Is the Country Safer Or Are We The Last Ones Left Holding The Bag? Or is this a sure sign to go Long on Iraqi Dinar?
British hand off to US in oil-rich southern Iraq
By KIM GAMEL – 7 hours ago
BAGHDAD (AP) — Britain turned over coalition command of the oil-rich south to the United States on Tuesday in the first step toward withdrawing virtually all British troops from Iraq by July.
The pomp-filled ceremony marked the beginning of the end of an often-troubled British mission. The Iraqis have accused the British of merely standing by while Shiite militias wielded control of the country's second-largest city of Basra for years.
However, U.S. and Iraqi commanders had nothing but praise Tuesday for Britain's role as the second-largest contributor of troops since the U.S.-led invasion in March 2003.
"The accomplishments of the British forces across Iraq, and especially here in Basra, have been nothing short of brilliant," Gen. Ray Odierno, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, said during the ceremony at the airport base outside Basra, 340 miles (550 kilometers) southeast of Baghdad.
The British troops will be withdrawn in phases, with combat operations to finish at the end of May and all but about 400 troops withdrawn by the end of July. Those staying behind will focus mainly on training the Iraqi navy to defend oil platforms stationed off the coast, the British
Ministry of Defense has said.
The Americans will move units to replace the British troops to ensure a smooth transition, the military said. U.S. military supply lines pass through the area en route from Kuwait to U.S. bases throughout the country.
The Iraq war has been extremely unpopular in Britain, and the issue shadowed the final years of Tony Blair's premiership.
At the height of combat operations in March and April 2003, Britain had 46,000 troops in Iraq. The British military has suffered 179 deaths since the war started.
Violence has dropped off sharply in most of Iraq, but a spate of high-profile bombings this month has raised concern that insurgents are regrouping ahead of the planned withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraqi cities by the end of June and from the rest of the country by the end of 2011.
The number of Iraqis killed in war-related violence rose 12 percent to at least 323 in March, including 87 security forces and 226 civilians, according to an Associated Press tally. That compared with 288 Iraqis killed in February.
The AP began tracking the figure in April 2005 based on reports by police, hospital officials, morgue workers and verifiable witness accounts.
These numbers are considered a minimum, based on AP reporting. The actual number is likely higher since many killings go unreported or uncounted. The security personnel include Iraqi military, police and police recruits, and bodyguards. Insurgent deaths are not included.
Also Tuesday, a suicide truck bomber struck an Iraqi police station in the northern city of Mosul, killing at least eight people — four policemen and four civilians — and wounding 12, officials said.
At least nine U.S. troop deaths were reported this month — less than half from combat, according to an AP tally.
The latest death occurred Tuesday, when a Marine died in a "noncombat incident" in Anbar province, west of Baghdad, the U.S. military said.
In all, at least 4,263 American service members have died in Iraq since the war began in March 2003, the AP tally shows.
Associated Press Writer Sinan Salaheddin and the AP News Research Center in New York contributed to this report.
Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
howtobuydinar.org
Friday, March 20, 2009
Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate - The Dollar Is No Longer Needed? Iraqi Dinar Thrives!
http://www.howtobuydinar.org/Iraqi-Dinar-Exchange-Rate.html
Has a new currency converter check it out...
OK so the dollar is severely down in Central Bank Auctions...
Meaning they are not selling it as much or using it as a currency. I remember when the dollar auctions use to dominate the Auctions.
I also remember when not too long ago you could get 1600 Iraqi Dinar per Dollar, not you would kill for that Iraqi Dinar Rate of Exchange.
Did you buy a ton of Dinar and reap the benefits or did you sit on the sidelines?
Fight amongst yourselves!
Central Bank of Iraq's dollar sales down to $150m on Tues
See article here:
http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=1093239341
Has a new currency converter check it out...
OK so the dollar is severely down in Central Bank Auctions...
Meaning they are not selling it as much or using it as a currency. I remember when the dollar auctions use to dominate the Auctions.
I also remember when not too long ago you could get 1600 Iraqi Dinar per Dollar, not you would kill for that Iraqi Dinar Rate of Exchange.
Did you buy a ton of Dinar and reap the benefits or did you sit on the sidelines?
Fight amongst yourselves!
Central Bank of Iraq's dollar sales down to $150m on Tues
See article here:
http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=1093239341
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate Is Ballistic For Past Two Years
Some Headlines read Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate has soared versus the US Dollar, is it only because we are in a recession? Or is it part of the overall picture that even in a bad economy Iraqi Dinar holds value backed by the third largest oil reserve in the world?
Iraqi Oil Estimates are off the Charts and Cheap Access is a Major Advantage!!!!
http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory
Average (431 days):
1209.47680
High:
1203.10000
Low:
1107.20000
Iraqi Oil Estimates are off the Charts and Cheap Access is a Major Advantage!!!!
http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory
Average (431 days):
1209.47680
High:
1203.10000
Low:
1107.20000
Iraqi Dinar Value And Exhange Rate Rises
Hat tip to E Dinar Financial They Have Great Iraqi Dinar News
http://www.edinarfinancial.net/news/?quer=&nm=&ny=&nn=581
The Iraq Central Bank's sales exceeded 2 billion dollars in February
March 04, 2009
The Iraq Central Bank's adviser Mudhir Mohammed Saleh stated with regard to the high volume of sales during last January as "a result for the new contracts being concluded by traders for the importation of various types of goods in the first month of the year as well as the decline in commodity prices globally which urged importers to buy more."
Regarding the reasons for stabilizing exchange rates throughout the month of February he said "because of world prices declining of imported goods, which would give a value of Iraqi dinar against the dollar, even if we did not raise the value."
The sales were distributed on total cash demand of $ 561 million and 600 thousand dollars at the exchange rate 1176 dinars per dollar, which includes the commission of the Central Bank amounting to six dinars per dollar.
While foreign remittances recorded a size of request amounted to one billion and 801 million and 958 thousand dollars, at an exchange rate of 1173 dinars per dollar, inclusive of the Central Bank's commission amounted to three dinars per dollar.
While the daily demand recorded of 124 million and 397 thousand dollars during the 19 sessions were held during February, lower than last December which recorded 179 million and 698 thousand, during 17 sessions.
None of the February's meetings witnessed any offers for selling dollar by the contributing banks in the auction.
The central bank holds an auction of five sessions weekly from Sunday to Thursday for the sale and purchase of foreign currencies, and receives a commission for the cash sale amounted to six dinars per dollar, and a commission of three dinars per dollar for the remittances outside the country.(Source)AlSabah
http://www.edinarfinancial.net/news/?quer=&nm=&ny=&nn=581
The Iraq Central Bank's sales exceeded 2 billion dollars in February
March 04, 2009
The Iraq Central Bank's adviser Mudhir Mohammed Saleh stated with regard to the high volume of sales during last January as "a result for the new contracts being concluded by traders for the importation of various types of goods in the first month of the year as well as the decline in commodity prices globally which urged importers to buy more."
Regarding the reasons for stabilizing exchange rates throughout the month of February he said "because of world prices declining of imported goods, which would give a value of Iraqi dinar against the dollar, even if we did not raise the value."
The sales were distributed on total cash demand of $ 561 million and 600 thousand dollars at the exchange rate 1176 dinars per dollar, which includes the commission of the Central Bank amounting to six dinars per dollar.
While foreign remittances recorded a size of request amounted to one billion and 801 million and 958 thousand dollars, at an exchange rate of 1173 dinars per dollar, inclusive of the Central Bank's commission amounted to three dinars per dollar.
While the daily demand recorded of 124 million and 397 thousand dollars during the 19 sessions were held during February, lower than last December which recorded 179 million and 698 thousand, during 17 sessions.
None of the February's meetings witnessed any offers for selling dollar by the contributing banks in the auction.
The central bank holds an auction of five sessions weekly from Sunday to Thursday for the sale and purchase of foreign currencies, and receives a commission for the cash sale amounted to six dinars per dollar, and a commission of three dinars per dollar for the remittances outside the country.(Source)AlSabah
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